April 10, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mickael Lebout | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 972 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Sergio Moraes's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sergio Moraes for the expected result. Had Mickael Lebout pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mickael Lebout | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mickael Lebout | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 970 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Sergio Moraes earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Mickael Lebout | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Sergio Moraes slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 62.2% vs 42.3% accuracy. Sergio Moraes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mickael Lebout | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 3:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 979 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Sergio Moraes edged out Mickael Lebout on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:59 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mickael Lebout | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 616 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +16 |
Sergio Moraes demonstrated extended layoff with 616 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Sergio Moraes capitalized on this activity level, while Mickael Lebout's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mickael Lebout | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Sergio Moraes extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mickael Lebout is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mickael Lebout | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.