June 7, 2024
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Punahele Soriano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 050 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Punahele Soriano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Punahele Soriano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 100 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Punahele Soriano earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Punahele Soriano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 144 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 175 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 331 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 930 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -114 | +114 |
Punahele Soriano dominated the striking exchanges with 331 vs 22 total strikes, 144 vs 7 significant strikes, 82.3% vs 58.3% accuracy. Punahele Soriano capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Punahele Soriano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 10:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 136 |
| Ground ELO | 890 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -157 | +157 |
Punahele Soriano dominated Miguel Baeza on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 10:58 of control time, 136 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Punahele Soriano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 784 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 005 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +29 |
Punahele Soriano demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Punahele Soriano capitalized on this activity level, while Miguel Baeza's 784-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Punahele Soriano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 999 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Punahele Soriano started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Miguel Baeza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Punahele Soriano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.