June 4, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 159 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio's 9-fight experience advantage (13 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Santiago Ponzinibbio for the expected result. Had Miguel Baeza pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 256 | 1 479 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 104 | 121 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 249 | 270 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 104 | 122 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 266 | 1 361 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio controlled the striking exchanges with 121 vs 104 significant strikes. Santiago Ponzinibbio capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 195 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 075 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +23 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Santiago Ponzinibbio capitalized on this activity level, while Miguel Baeza's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +14 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Miguel Baeza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 047 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

