November 27, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 187 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:28 | 4:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 278 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -36 |
Miguel Baeza earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:28, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Takashi Sato was submitted.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 73 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 287 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Miguel Baeza controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 15 total strikes, 40 vs 15 significant strikes, 54.8% vs 25.9% accuracy. Miguel Baeza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:09 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 214 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -86 |
Miguel Baeza dominated Takashi Sato on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:09 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 087 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Miguel Baeza demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Miguel Baeza capitalized on this activity level, while Takashi Sato's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 081 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Miguel Baeza extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Takashi Sato is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Miguel Baeza | Takashi Sato |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 064 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.