April 29, 2022
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 962 | 997 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 938 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Natan Levy earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 104 | 92 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 210 | 141 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 115 | 99 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 925 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Mike Breeden controlled the striking through superior volume (115 vs 99 total strikes), significant strike advantage (104 vs 92), superior accuracy (49.5% vs 65.2%). However, since Mike Breeden lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Natan Levy's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 9 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:56 | 3:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 878 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -111 | +111 |
Natan Levy dominated Mike Breeden on the ground with 9 vs 3 takedowns, 3:39 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 210 | 161 |
| Activity ELO | 964 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +38 |
Natan Levy demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Natan Levy capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Breeden's 210-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Natan Levy started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Breeden is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

