August 11, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 932 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Terrance McKinney's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Terrance McKinney for the expected result. Had Mike Breeden pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 941 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:25 | 1:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 913 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +59 |
Terrance McKinney earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 47 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 798 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -127 | +127 |
Terrance McKinney controlled the striking exchanges with 30 vs 1 total strikes, 30 vs 1 significant strikes, 63.8% vs 20.0% accuracy. Terrance McKinney capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 852 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 469 | 28 |
| Activity ELO | 947 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +122 |
Terrance McKinney demonstrated exceptional activity with 28 days since his last fight, earning a high activity bonus for the rapid turnaround. As the winner, Terrance McKinney capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Breeden's 469-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 944 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Terrance McKinney started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Breeden is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Breeden | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 941 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.