March 15, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Davis | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 098 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Mike Davis | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Davis | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:43 | 1:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 179 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -31 |
Mike Davis earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:43, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Natan Levy was submitted.
| Metric | Mike Davis | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 167 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Natan Levy controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (8 vs 3), superior accuracy (88.9% vs 42.9%). However, since Natan Levy lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Mike Davis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Davis | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:11 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 172 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Mike Davis controlled Natan Levy on the ground with 0 takedowns, 5:11 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mike Davis | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 533 | 469 |
| Activity ELO | 1 076 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -20 |
Mike Davis demonstrated extended layoff with 533 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Mike Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Natan Levy's 469-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Davis | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 084 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -19 |
Mike Davis extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Natan Levy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Davis | Natan Levy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.