January 10, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Guymon | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Mike Guymon | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Guymon | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:27 | 4:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +69 |
Rory MacDonald earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:27, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Mike Guymon | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 968 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Rory MacDonald slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 42.1% vs 33.3% accuracy. Rory MacDonald capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Guymon | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 2:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 921 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Rory MacDonald controlled Mike Guymon on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:50 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mike Guymon | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Rory MacDonald demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Rory MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Guymon's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Guymon | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Rory MacDonald started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Guymon is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Guymon | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

