July 6, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Nickels | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 989 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Stephan Bonnar's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stephan Bonnar for the expected result. Had Mike Nickels pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mike Nickels | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Nickels | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:14 | 2:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 028 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +72 |
Stephan Bonnar earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:14, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Mike Nickels | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 035 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Stephan Bonnar slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 40.0% vs 22.2% accuracy. Stephan Bonnar capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Nickels | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:42 | 1:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 098 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Stephan Bonnar edged out Mike Nickels on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:05 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mike Nickels | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 378 | 315 |
| Activity ELO | 1 004 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Stephan Bonnar demonstrated standard activity with 315 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Stephan Bonnar capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Nickels's 378-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Nickels | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Stephan Bonnar started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Nickels is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Nickels | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.