February 5, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Pyle | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 116 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Mike Pyle's 9-fight experience advantage (16 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mike Pyle for the expected result. Had Sean Spencer pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 069 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:25 | 4:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 251 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -21 |
Mike Pyle gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 75 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 177 | 208 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 060 | 935 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Mike Pyle controlled the striking exchanges with 79 vs 54 total strikes, 75 vs 50 significant strikes, 42.4% vs 24.0% accuracy. Mike Pyle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:53 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 130 | 892 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Mike Pyle edged out Sean Spencer on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:53 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 384 |
| Activity ELO | 1 189 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Mike Pyle demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mike Pyle capitalized on this activity level, while Sean Spencer's 384-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Mike Pyle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sean Spencer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | Sean Spencer |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.