February 21, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Pyle | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 165 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Mike Pyle's 5-fight experience advantage (13 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mike Pyle for the expected result. Had TJ Waldburger pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 099 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:03 | 4:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 333 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -24 |
Mike Pyle gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 101 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 88 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 168 | 926 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Mike Pyle controlled the striking exchanges with 88 vs 49 total strikes, 56 vs 38 significant strikes, 55.4% vs 42.7% accuracy. Mike Pyle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:17 | 2:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 255 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Mike Pyle controlled TJ Waldburger on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 3:17 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 232 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -13 |
Mike Pyle demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mike Pyle capitalized on this activity level, while TJ Waldburger's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 139 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -16 |
Mike Pyle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. TJ Waldburger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Pyle | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 099 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.