October 18, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Rio | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 999 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Tony Ferguson's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tony Ferguson for the expected result. Had Mike Rio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mike Rio | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Rio | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:52 | 1:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 988 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +59 |
Tony Ferguson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:52, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Mike Rio | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 979 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Tony Ferguson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 33.3% vs 50.0% accuracy. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Rio | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:17 | 0:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 949 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -89 | +89 |
Tony Ferguson dominated Mike Rio on the ground with 0:17 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mike Rio | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 532 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +12 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated extended layoff with 532 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Rio's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Rio | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Tony Ferguson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Rio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Rio | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.