February 5, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Swick | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 142 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +55 |
Paulo Thiago overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Mike Swick.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 097 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:54 | 1:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 283 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +96 |
Paulo Thiago earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:54, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mike Swick was submitted.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 276 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Paulo Thiago controlled the striking exchanges with 36.0% vs 11.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Paulo Thiago capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:30 | 0:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 154 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Paulo Thiago edged out Mike Swick on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:15 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 214 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +93 |
Paulo Thiago demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Paulo Thiago capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Swick's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 141 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +34 |
Paulo Thiago extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Swick is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 095 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

