March 3, 2006
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike Swick | Steve Vigneault |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Mike Swick's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mike Swick for the expected result. Had Steve Vigneault pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Steve Vigneault |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Steve Vigneault |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:09 | 2:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 232 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -21 |
Mike Swick earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:09, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Steve Vigneault |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 213 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Mike Swick slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 13 vs 6 significant strikes, 59.1% vs 46.2% accuracy. Mike Swick capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Steve Vigneault |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:49 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 098 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Mike Swick edged out Steve Vigneault on the ground with 0:49 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Steve Vigneault |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 088 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Mike Swick demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mike Swick capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Vigneault's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Steve Vigneault |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
Mike Swick extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Vigneault is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike Swick | Steve Vigneault |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

