August 19, 2005
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Randy Couture's 12-fight experience advantage (15 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Randy Couture for the expected result. Had Mike van Arsdale pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 033 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:52 | 0:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 090 | 1 417 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +20 |
Randy Couture earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 0:52, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mike van Arsdale was submitted.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 46 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 083 | 1 411 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Randy Couture controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 9 total strikes, 27 vs 8 significant strikes, 58.7% vs 20.0% accuracy. Randy Couture capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:09 | 7:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 19 |
| Ground ELO | 1 095 | 1 486 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Randy Couture dominated Mike van Arsdale on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 7:07 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +12 |
Randy Couture demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Randy Couture capitalized on this activity level, while Mike van Arsdale's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 035 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +14 |
Randy Couture started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike van Arsdale is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 036 | 1 393 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.