February 3, 2006
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 007 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Renato Sobral's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Renato Sobral for the expected result. Had Mike van Arsdale pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 013 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:21 | 2:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 053 | 1 197 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +65 |
Renato Sobral earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:21, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 010 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Renato Sobral edged the striking exchanges with 9 vs 1 significant strikes, 75.0% vs 25.0% accuracy. Renato Sobral capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 1:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 022 | 1 293 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Renato Sobral dominated Mike van Arsdale on the ground with 1:36 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 121 |
| Activity ELO | 1 014 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +37 |
Renato Sobral demonstrated solid activity levels with 121 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Renato Sobral capitalized on this activity level, while Mike van Arsdale's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 015 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Renato Sobral extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike van Arsdale is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mike van Arsdale | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 015 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.