March 10, 1994
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Minoki Ichihara | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Royce Gracie's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Royce Gracie for the expected result. Had Minoki Ichihara pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Minoki Ichihara | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Minoki Ichihara | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 5:08 | 5:08 |
| Win Type ELO | 985 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +25 |
Royce Gracie earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 5:08, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Minoki Ichihara | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 110 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 974 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Royce Gracie dominated the striking exchanges with 110 vs 12 total strikes. Royce Gracie capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Minoki Ichihara | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 976 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Minoki Ichihara | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 118 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 449 |
| ELO Change | -3 | +8 |
Royce Gracie demonstrated solid activity levels with 118 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Royce Gracie capitalized on this activity level, while Minoki Ichihara's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Minoki Ichihara | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +23 |
Royce Gracie extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Minoki Ichihara is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Minoki Ichihara | Royce Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.