October 28, 2011
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mirko Filipovic | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 985 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +41 |
Roy Nelson overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Mirko Filipovic.
| Metric | Mirko Filipovic | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 973 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mirko Filipovic | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:30 | 1:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 079 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +71 |
Roy Nelson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mirko Filipovic | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 961 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Roy Nelson controlled the striking exchanges with 70 vs 37 total strikes, 42.7% vs 50.8% accuracy. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mirko Filipovic | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:26 | 4:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 955 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -77 | +77 |
Roy Nelson controlled Mirko Filipovic on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:15 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Mirko Filipovic | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 224 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 028 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +35 |
Roy Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Mirko Filipovic's 224-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mirko Filipovic | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Roy Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mirko Filipovic is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mirko Filipovic | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 971 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.