December 19, 2014
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mitch Gagnon | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 070 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Renan Barao's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Renan Barao for the expected result. Had Mitch Gagnon pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mitch Gagnon | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mitch Gagnon | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:53 | 3:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 173 | 1 368 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +41 |
Renan Barao earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:53, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mitch Gagnon was submitted.
| Metric | Mitch Gagnon | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 138 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 124 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Renan Barao controlled the striking exchanges with 42.8% vs 52.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Renan Barao capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mitch Gagnon | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:15 | 2:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 201 | 1 387 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Renan Barao controlled Mitch Gagnon on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:22 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mitch Gagnon | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 78 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 098 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Renan Barao demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Renan Barao capitalized on this activity level, while Mitch Gagnon's 78-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mitch Gagnon | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 066 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +16 |
Renan Barao started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mitch Gagnon is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mitch Gagnon | Renan Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.