March 15, 2024
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mitch Ramirez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Thiago Moises's 11-fight experience advantage (12 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Moises for the expected result. Had Mitch Ramirez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mitch Ramirez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mitch Ramirez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:15 | 0:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 979 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +43 |
Thiago Moises gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mitch Ramirez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 48 | 39 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 887 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -113 | +113 |
Thiago Moises controlled the striking exchanges with 53 vs 28 total strikes, 25 vs 16 significant strikes, 64.1% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Moises capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mitch Ramirez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 6:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 951 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Thiago Moises landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Mitch Ramirez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +17 |
Thiago Moises demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Moises capitalized on this activity level, while Mitch Ramirez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mitch Ramirez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Thiago Moises started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mitch Ramirez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mitch Ramirez | Thiago Moises |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

