April 12, 2025
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mitch Raposo | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 938 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Sumudaerji's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sumudaerji for the expected result. Had Mitch Raposo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mitch Raposo | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 995 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mitch Raposo | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 980 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sumudaerji receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Mitch Raposo | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 114 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 78 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 918 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Sumudaerji dominated the striking exchanges with 78 vs 13 total strikes, 45 vs 9 significant strikes. Sumudaerji capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mitch Raposo | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 19 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:18 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 952 | 868 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Sumudaerji did not secure a significant ground advantage against Mitch Raposo on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Mitch Raposo | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 316 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 964 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +29 |
Sumudaerji demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sumudaerji capitalized on this activity level, while Mitch Raposo's 316-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mitch Raposo | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 959 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Sumudaerji started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mitch Raposo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mitch Raposo | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 995 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

