Modestas Bukauskas vs Rafael Cerqueira

February 22, 2025

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1063
(+33)
Modestas Bukauskas
Winner: Modestas Bukauskas
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 2:12

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Modestas Bukauskas+33
Rafael Cerqueira-28
937
(-28)
Rafael Cerqueira

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +25Rafael Cerqueira: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Total UFC Fights92
Experience Gap7-7
Experience ELO1 065948
ELO Change+25-25
💡

What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Modestas Bukauskas for the expected result. Had Rafael Cerqueira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +19Rafael Cerqueira: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 028961
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +51Rafael Cerqueira: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:122:12
Win Type ELO1 188943
ELO Change+51-23
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What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:12, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +89Rafael Cerqueira: -89

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Significant Strikes Landed169
Significant Strikes Attempted4122
Total Strikes Landed169
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 007793
ELO Change+89-89
💡

What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 9 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Modestas Bukauskas capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +17Rafael Cerqueira: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 073964
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +21Rafael Cerqueira: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Days Since Last Fight211119
Activity ELO1 072963
ELO Change+21-17
💡

What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Modestas Bukauskas capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Cerqueira's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +22Rafael Cerqueira: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 044962
ELO Change+22-18
💡

What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Cerqueira is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +19Rafael Cerqueira: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasRafael Cerqueira
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 028961
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.