February 22, 2025
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Rafael Cerqueira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 065 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Modestas Bukauskas's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Modestas Bukauskas for the expected result. Had Rafael Cerqueira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Rafael Cerqueira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 028 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Rafael Cerqueira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:12 | 2:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 188 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -23 |
Modestas Bukauskas earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:12, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Rafael Cerqueira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 007 | 793 |
| ELO Change | +89 | -89 |
Modestas Bukauskas controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 9 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Modestas Bukauskas capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Rafael Cerqueira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 073 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Rafael Cerqueira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 072 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Modestas Bukauskas demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Modestas Bukauskas capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Cerqueira's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Rafael Cerqueira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 044 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Modestas Bukauskas extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Cerqueira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Rafael Cerqueira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 028 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

