June 16, 2023
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 026 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Modestas Bukauskas's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Modestas Bukauskas for the expected result. Had Zac Pauga pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 007 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 117 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Modestas Bukauskas earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 67 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 112 | 117 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 953 | 924 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Zac Pauga controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (67 vs 56). However, since Zac Pauga lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Modestas Bukauskas's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:20 | 2:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 996 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Modestas Bukauskas did not secure a significant ground advantage against Zac Pauga on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:20 of control time, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -21 |
Modestas Bukauskas demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Modestas Bukauskas capitalized on this activity level, while Zac Pauga's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 017 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Modestas Bukauskas extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zac Pauga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Modestas Bukauskas | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 007 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

