Modestas Bukauskas vs Zac Pauga

June 16, 2023

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1021
(+28)
Modestas Bukauskas
Winner: Modestas Bukauskas
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Modestas Bukauskas+28
Zac Pauga-24
970
(-24)
Zac Pauga

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +34Zac Pauga: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasZac Pauga
Total UFC Fights63
Experience Gap3-3
Experience ELO1 026984
ELO Change+34-34
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What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Modestas Bukauskas for the expected result. Had Zac Pauga pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +22Zac Pauga: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasZac Pauga
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 007977
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +32Zac Pauga: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasZac Pauga
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 117970
ELO Change+32-32
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What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +22Zac Pauga: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasZac Pauga
Significant Strikes Landed5667
Significant Strikes Attempted112117
Total Strikes Landed6272
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO953924
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

Zac Pauga controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (67 vs 56). However, since Zac Pauga lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Modestas Bukauskas's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +21Zac Pauga: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasZac Pauga
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted05
Ground Control Time1:202:17
Ground Strikes Landed12
Ground ELO996962
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas did not secure a significant ground advantage against Zac Pauga on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:20 of control time, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +43Zac Pauga: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasZac Pauga
Days Since Last Fight126119
Activity ELO1 042984
ELO Change+43-21
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What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Modestas Bukauskas capitalized on this activity level, while Zac Pauga's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +26Zac Pauga: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasZac Pauga
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 017979
ELO Change+26-22
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What Happened

Modestas Bukauskas extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zac Pauga is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Modestas Bukauskas: +22Zac Pauga: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricModestas BukauskasZac Pauga
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 007977
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.