August 5, 2022
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mohammed Usman | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Mohammed Usman | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mohammed Usman | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:36 | 0:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 086 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -42 |
Mohammed Usman gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mohammed Usman | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 084 | 916 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Zac Pauga controlled the striking through superior volume (33 vs 13 total strikes), significant strike advantage (32 vs 12), superior accuracy (64.0% vs 30.0%). However, since Zac Pauga lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Mohammed Usman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Mohammed Usman | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 053 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Mohammed Usman | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Mohammed Usman demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Mohammed Usman capitalized on this activity level, while Zac Pauga's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mohammed Usman | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Mohammed Usman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zac Pauga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mohammed Usman | Zac Pauga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

