January 19, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mounir Lazzez | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 062 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Warlley Alves's 10-fight experience advantage (12 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Warlley Alves for the expected result. Had Mounir Lazzez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mounir Lazzez | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 006 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mounir Lazzez | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:35 | 2:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 049 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +57 |
Warlley Alves earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:35, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Mounir Lazzez | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 942 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -116 | +116 |
Warlley Alves controlled the striking exchanges with 24 vs 2 total strikes, 17 vs 2 significant strikes, 81.0% vs 100.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Warlley Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mounir Lazzez | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:42 | 1:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 056 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Warlley Alves landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Mounir Lazzez | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 431 |
| Activity ELO | 1 013 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +15 |
Warlley Alves demonstrated extended layoff with 431 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Warlley Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Mounir Lazzez's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mounir Lazzez | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Warlley Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mounir Lazzez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mounir Lazzez | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

