October 20, 2023
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Muhammad Mokaev | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 182 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -21 |
Muhammad Mokaev overcame a 14-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 19 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tim Elliott.
| Metric | Muhammad Mokaev | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Muhammad Mokaev | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:03 | 3:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 257 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -29 |
Muhammad Mokaev earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:03, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tim Elliott was submitted.
| Metric | Muhammad Mokaev | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 118 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 167 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Muhammad Mokaev controlled the striking exchanges with 118 vs 71 total strikes, 14 vs 30 significant strikes, 42.4% vs 69.8% accuracy. Muhammad Mokaev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Muhammad Mokaev | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:24 | 2:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 380 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Muhammad Mokaev dominated Tim Elliott on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 8:24 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Muhammad Mokaev | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 162 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Muhammad Mokaev demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Muhammad Mokaev capitalized on this activity level, while Tim Elliott's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Muhammad Mokaev | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 128 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -18 |
Muhammad Mokaev continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Tim Elliott's now at 0.
| Metric | Muhammad Mokaev | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 094 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.