January 18, 2025
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 070 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -23 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 016 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 081 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Muin Gafurov earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 90 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 097 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -93 |
Muin Gafurov controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 39 total strikes, 37 vs 31 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Muin Gafurov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:37 | 1:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 114 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -73 |
Muin Gafurov landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 337 |
| Activity ELO | 1 035 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -25 |
Muin Gafurov demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Muin Gafurov capitalized on this activity level, while Rinya Nakamura's 337-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 028 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -25 |
Muin Gafurov extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rinya Nakamura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 016 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.