Muin Gafurov vs Said Nurmagomedov

October 20, 2023

Bantamweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

956
(-14)
Muin Gafurov
Winner: Said Nurmagomedov
Submission
Round 1 • 1:13

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Muin Gafurov-14
Said Nurmagomedov+16
1187
(+16)
Said Nurmagomedov

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Muin Gafurov: -15Said Nurmagomedov: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricMuin GafurovSaid Nurmagomedov
Total UFC Fights29
Experience Gap-77
Experience ELO9581 196
ELO Change-15+15
💡

What Happened

Said Nurmagomedov's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Said Nurmagomedov for the expected result. Had Muin Gafurov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Muin Gafurov: -15Said Nurmagomedov: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricMuin GafurovSaid Nurmagomedov
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9641 098
ELO Change-15+15
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Muin Gafurov: -12Said Nurmagomedov: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricMuin GafurovSaid Nurmagomedov
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish1:131:13
Win Type ELO9591 309
ELO Change-12+22
💡

What Happened

Said Nurmagomedov earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:13, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Muin Gafurov: -15Said Nurmagomedov: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricMuin GafurovSaid Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes Landed15
Significant Strikes Attempted311
Total Strikes Landed15
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9401 326
ELO Change-15+15
💡

What Happened

Said Nurmagomedov slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 45.5% vs 33.3% accuracy. Said Nurmagomedov capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Muin Gafurov: -17Said Nurmagomedov: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricMuin GafurovSaid Nurmagomedov
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted10
Ground Control Time0:070:03
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO9271 199
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Muin Gafurov: -13Said Nurmagomedov: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricMuin GafurovSaid Nurmagomedov
Days Since Last Fight140224
Activity ELO9671 145
ELO Change-13+16
💡

What Happened

Said Nurmagomedov demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Said Nurmagomedov capitalized on this activity level, while Muin Gafurov's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Muin Gafurov: -13Said Nurmagomedov: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricMuin GafurovSaid Nurmagomedov
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9671 125
ELO Change-13+15
💡

What Happened

Said Nurmagomedov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Muin Gafurov is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Muin Gafurov: -15Said Nurmagomedov: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricMuin GafurovSaid Nurmagomedov
Weight ClassBantamweightBantamweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9641 098
ELO Change-15+15
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.