October 20, 2023
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Said Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 958 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Said Nurmagomedov's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Said Nurmagomedov for the expected result. Had Muin Gafurov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Said Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Said Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:13 | 1:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 959 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +22 |
Said Nurmagomedov earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:13, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Said Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 940 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Said Nurmagomedov slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 45.5% vs 33.3% accuracy. Said Nurmagomedov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Said Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 927 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Said Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 224 |
| Activity ELO | 967 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +16 |
Said Nurmagomedov demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Said Nurmagomedov capitalized on this activity level, while Muin Gafurov's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Said Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 967 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Said Nurmagomedov started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Muin Gafurov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Muin Gafurov | Said Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 964 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

