June 21, 2025
Catch Weight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Myktybek Orolbai | Tofiq Musayev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 122 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Myktybek Orolbai's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Myktybek Orolbai for the expected result. Had Tofiq Musayev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Myktybek Orolbai | Tofiq Musayev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Myktybek Orolbai | Tofiq Musayev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:35 | 4:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 187 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -25 |
Myktybek Orolbai earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:35, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Myktybek Orolbai | Tofiq Musayev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 082 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Tofiq Musayev lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Myktybek Orolbai's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Myktybek Orolbai | Tofiq Musayev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:40 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 248 | 909 |
| ELO Change | +91 | -91 |
Myktybek Orolbai dominated Tofiq Musayev on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 3:40 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Myktybek Orolbai | Tofiq Musayev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 072 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Myktybek Orolbai demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Myktybek Orolbai capitalized on this activity level, while Tofiq Musayev's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Myktybek Orolbai | Tofiq Musayev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 056 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Myktybek Orolbai started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tofiq Musayev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Myktybek Orolbai | Tofiq Musayev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 045 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.