October 24, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Naoyuki Kotani | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 915 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +23 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Naoyuki Kotani | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 925 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Naoyuki Kotani | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:06 | 3:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 866 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +46 |
Yan Cabral earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:06, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Naoyuki Kotani was submitted.
| Metric | Naoyuki Kotani | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 797 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Yan Cabral slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 11 vs 5 significant strikes, 45.8% vs 19.2% accuracy. Yan Cabral capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Naoyuki Kotani | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:10 | 4:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 787 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Yan Cabral dominated Naoyuki Kotani on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 4:20 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Naoyuki Kotani | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 927 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +31 |
Yan Cabral demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Yan Cabral capitalized on this activity level, while Naoyuki Kotani's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Naoyuki Kotani | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 926 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +19 |
Yan Cabral started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Naoyuki Kotani is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Naoyuki Kotani | Yan Cabral |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 925 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

