Natan Levy vs Rafa Garcia

November 19, 2021

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

960
(-40)
Natan Levy
Winner: Rafa Garcia
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Natan Levy-40
Rafa Garcia+44
1000
(+44)
Rafa Garcia

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Natan Levy: -36Rafa Garcia: +36

Performance Statistics

MetricNatan LevyRafa Garcia
Total UFC Fights13
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO964986
ELO Change-36+36
💡

What Happened

Rafa Garcia's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafa Garcia for the expected result. Had Natan Levy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Natan Levy: -23Rafa Garcia: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricNatan LevyRafa Garcia
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO977983
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Natan Levy: -48Rafa Garcia: +48

Performance Statistics

MetricNatan LevyRafa Garcia
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO952996
ELO Change-48+48
💡

What Happened

Rafa Garcia earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Natan Levy: -25Rafa Garcia: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricNatan LevyRafa Garcia
Significant Strikes Landed4735
Significant Strikes Attempted12791
Total Strikes Landed5655
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO975966
ELO Change-25+25
💡

What Happened

Natan Levy controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (47 vs 35). However, since Natan Levy lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rafa Garcia's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Natan Levy: -117Rafa Garcia: +117

Performance Statistics

MetricNatan LevyRafa Garcia
Takedowns Landed37
Takedowns Attempted712
Ground Control Time0:485:37
Ground Strikes Landed01
Ground ELO8831 074
ELO Change-117+117
💡

What Happened

Rafa Garcia dominated Natan Levy on the ground with 7 vs 3 takedowns, 5:37 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Natan Levy: -23Rafa Garcia: +58

Performance Statistics

MetricNatan LevyRafa Garcia
Days Since Last FightN/A113
Activity ELO9771 024
ELO Change-23+58
💡

What Happened

Rafa Garcia demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafa Garcia capitalized on this activity level, while Natan Levy's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Natan Levy: -23Rafa Garcia: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricNatan LevyRafa Garcia
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO977988
ELO Change-23+26
💡

What Happened

Rafa Garcia started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Natan Levy is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Natan Levy: -23Rafa Garcia: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricNatan LevyRafa Garcia
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO977983
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.