November 19, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Natan Levy | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 964 | 986 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Rafa Garcia's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafa Garcia for the expected result. Had Natan Levy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Natan Levy | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Natan Levy | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 952 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Rafa Garcia earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Natan Levy | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 127 | 91 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 975 | 966 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Natan Levy controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (47 vs 35). However, since Natan Levy lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rafa Garcia's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Natan Levy | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:48 | 5:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 883 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -117 | +117 |
Rafa Garcia dominated Natan Levy on the ground with 7 vs 3 takedowns, 5:37 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Natan Levy | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 977 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +58 |
Rafa Garcia demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafa Garcia capitalized on this activity level, while Natan Levy's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Natan Levy | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 977 | 988 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Rafa Garcia started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Natan Levy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Natan Levy | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 977 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

