December 12, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 133 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Rafael Dos Anjos overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (17 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Nate Diaz.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 339 | 1 494 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Rafael Dos Anjos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 77 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 104 | 119 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 129 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 216 | 1 486 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Rafael Dos Anjos dominated the striking exchanges with 129 vs 51 total strikes, 77 vs 13 significant strikes, 64.7% vs 12.5% accuracy. Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 7:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 39 |
| Ground ELO | 1 136 | 1 409 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Rafael Dos Anjos controlled Nate Diaz on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:48 of control time, 39 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 378 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 283 | 1 456 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +35 |
Rafael Dos Anjos demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Diaz's 378-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 125 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Rafael Dos Anjos extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Diaz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 070 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.