April 29, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 069 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +70 |
Rory MacDonald overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Nate Diaz.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 217 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Rory MacDonald earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 72 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 194 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Rory MacDonald controlled the striking exchanges with 42 vs 26 significant strikes. Rory MacDonald capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:29 | 5:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 025 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -143 | +143 |
Rory MacDonald dominated Nate Diaz on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 5:15 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 322 |
| Activity ELO | 1 196 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Rory MacDonald demonstrated standard activity with 322 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Rory MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Diaz's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 079 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +30 |
Rory MacDonald started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Diaz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.