March 26, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 101 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Nate Diaz's 7-fight experience advantage (10 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Rory Markham pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 069 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:47 | 2:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 283 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -21 |
Nate Diaz earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:47, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 230 | 881 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -76 |
Nate Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 54 vs 3 total strikes, 34 vs 3 significant strikes, 56.7% vs 13.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:14 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Nate Diaz controlled Rory Markham on the ground with 1:14 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 75 | 399 |
| Activity ELO | 1 220 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -11 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 75 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Rory Markham's 399-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 102 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Nate Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rory Markham is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Rory Markham |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

