Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham

March 26, 2010

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1151
(+34)
Nate Diaz
Winner: Nate Diaz
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 2:47

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Nate Diaz+34
Rory Markham-28
970
(-28)
Rory Markham

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +25Rory Markham: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazRory Markham
Total UFC Fights103
Experience Gap7-7
Experience ELO1 101979
ELO Change+25-25
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What Happened

Nate Diaz's 7-fight experience advantage (10 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Rory Markham pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +18Rory Markham: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazRory Markham
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 069982
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +48Rory Markham: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazRory Markham
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:472:47
Win Type ELO1 2831 028
ELO Change+48-21
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What Happened

Nate Diaz earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:47, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +76Rory Markham: -76

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazRory Markham
Significant Strikes Landed343
Significant Strikes Attempted6022
Total Strikes Landed543
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 230881
ELO Change+76-76
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What Happened

Nate Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 54 vs 3 total strikes, 34 vs 3 significant strikes, 56.7% vs 13.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +36Rory Markham: -36

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazRory Markham
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time1:140:00
Ground Strikes Landed180
Ground ELO1 135934
ELO Change+36-36
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What Happened

Nate Diaz controlled Rory Markham on the ground with 1:14 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +32Rory Markham: -11

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazRory Markham
Days Since Last Fight75399
Activity ELO1 220989
ELO Change+32-11
💡

What Happened

Nate Diaz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 75 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Rory Markham's 399-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +18Rory Markham: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazRory Markham
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 102986
ELO Change+18-16
💡

What Happened

Nate Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rory Markham is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +18Rory Markham: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazRory Markham
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 068982
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.