September 23, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Nate Diaz's 10-fight experience advantage (14 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Takanori Gomi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:27 | 4:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 268 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -31 |
Nate Diaz earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:27, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 73 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 285 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +91 | -91 |
Nate Diaz controlled the striking exchanges with 42 vs 6 total strikes, 36 vs 4 significant strikes, 49.3% vs 17.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:23 | 0:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 068 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Nate Diaz edged out Takanori Gomi on the ground with 0:23 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 1 221 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -12 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Takanori Gomi's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Nate Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Takanori Gomi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nate Diaz | Takanori Gomi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 061 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

