Nate Diaz vs Takanori Gomi

September 23, 2011

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1145
(+37)
Nate Diaz
Winner: Nate Diaz
Submission
Round 1 • 4:27

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Nate Diaz+37
Takanori Gomi-32
1012
(-32)
Takanori Gomi

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +27Takanori Gomi: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazTakanori Gomi
Total UFC Fights144
Experience Gap10-10
Experience ELO1 096996
ELO Change+27-27
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What Happened

Nate Diaz's 10-fight experience advantage (14 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Takanori Gomi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +18Takanori Gomi: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazTakanori Gomi
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 062977
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +51Takanori Gomi: -31

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazTakanori Gomi
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:274:27
Win Type ELO1 2681 094
ELO Change+51-31
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What Happened

Nate Diaz earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:27, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +91Takanori Gomi: -91

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazTakanori Gomi
Significant Strikes Landed364
Significant Strikes Attempted7323
Total Strikes Landed426
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 2851 044
ELO Change+91-91
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What Happened

Nate Diaz controlled the striking exchanges with 42 vs 6 total strikes, 36 vs 4 significant strikes, 49.3% vs 17.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +43Takanori Gomi: -43

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazTakanori Gomi
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted01
Ground Control Time0:230:37
Ground Strikes Landed01
Ground ELO1 068987
ELO Change+43-43
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What Happened

Nate Diaz edged out Takanori Gomi on the ground with 0:23 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +25Takanori Gomi: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazTakanori Gomi
Days Since Last Fight147266
Activity ELO1 2211 033
ELO Change+25-12
💡

What Happened

Nate Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Takanori Gomi's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +18Takanori Gomi: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazTakanori Gomi
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 097987
ELO Change+18-16
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What Happened

Nate Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Takanori Gomi is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Nate Diaz: +18Takanori Gomi: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricNate DiazTakanori Gomi
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 061977
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.