Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson

Nate Diaz's 6-fight experience advantage (27 vs 21 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Tony Ferguson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Nate Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 4 at 2:52, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tony Ferguson was submitted.

Nate Diaz controlled the striking exchanges with 101 vs 80 total strikes, 101 vs 80 significant strikes. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Nate Diaz demonstrated extended layoff with 455 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Tony Ferguson's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Nate Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tony Ferguson is back at 0 with this loss.

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.