September 14, 2010
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 197 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Nate Marquardt's 6-fight experience advantage (12 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Marquardt for the expected result. Had Rousimar Palhares pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 116 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:28 | 3:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 475 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -23 |
Nate Marquardt earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:28, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 427 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Nate Marquardt edged the striking exchanges with 13 vs 1 significant strikes, 37.1% vs 16.7% accuracy. Nate Marquardt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:17 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 307 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Nate Marquardt controlled Rousimar Palhares on the ground with 0:17 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 221 | 172 |
| Activity ELO | 1 233 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Nate Marquardt demonstrated standard activity with 221 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while Rousimar Palhares's 172-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 145 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Nate Marquardt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rousimar Palhares is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 113 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

