September 30, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 105 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Nate Marquardt's 13-fight experience advantage (22 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Marquardt for the expected result. Had Tamdan McCrory pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:44 | 4:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 329 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -27 |
Nate Marquardt gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 52 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 167 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Nate Marquardt controlled the striking exchanges with 48 vs 19 total strikes, 24 vs 16 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 30.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Marquardt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:01 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 214 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Nate Marquardt landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 198 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -14 |
Nate Marquardt demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while Tamdan McCrory's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Nate Marquardt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tamdan McCrory is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Tamdan McCrory |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

