June 6, 2008
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 126 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +46 |
Thales Leites overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Nate Marquardt.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 221 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Thales Leites receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 72 | 45 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 197 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -78 | +78 |
Nate Marquardt controlled the striking through superior volume (49 vs 33 total strikes), significant strike advantage (35 vs 13), superior accuracy (48.6% vs 28.9%). However, since Nate Marquardt lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thales Leites's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:04 | 1:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 262 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Thales Leites landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 287 |
| Activity ELO | 1 113 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Thales Leites demonstrated standard activity with 287 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Marquardt's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 076 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +33 |
Thales Leites extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Marquardt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.