May 13, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +66 |
Thiago Santos overcame a 14-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Nate Marquardt.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:39 | 3:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 273 | 1 356 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +111 |
Thiago Santos earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 083 | 1 390 |
| ELO Change | -98 | +98 |
Thiago Santos dominated the striking exchanges with 16 vs 7 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 164 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 156 |
| Activity ELO | 1 171 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +47 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 156 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Marquardt's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 075 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +32 |
Thiago Santos extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Marquardt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.