February 20, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 181 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -16 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 103 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:10 | 3:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 406 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | +78 | -39 |
Nate Marquardt gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 102 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 452 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | +78 | -78 |
Nate Marquardt dominated the striking exchanges with 79 vs 20 total strikes, 67 vs 16 significant strikes, 65.7% vs 21.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Marquardt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:19 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 377 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Nate Marquardt landed 1 knockdown followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 215 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -26 |
Nate Marquardt demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while Wilson Gouveia's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 125 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Nate Marquardt extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Wilson Gouveia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nate Marquardt | Wilson Gouveia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 100 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.