April 14, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nathan Coy | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 987 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Zak Cummings's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Zak Cummings for the expected result. Had Nathan Coy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nathan Coy | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nathan Coy | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:21 | 4:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 984 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +33 |
Zak Cummings earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:21, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Nathan Coy | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 005 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Zak Cummings slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 34.7% vs 56.1% accuracy. Zak Cummings capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nathan Coy | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 966 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | -81 | +81 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Nathan Coy | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 419 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 025 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +35 |
Zak Cummings demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Zak Cummings capitalized on this activity level, while Nathan Coy's 419-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nathan Coy | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +20 |
Zak Cummings extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nathan Coy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nathan Coy | Zak Cummings |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

