Nathan Coy vs Zak Cummings

April 14, 2017

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

990
(-25)
Nathan Coy
Winner: Zak Cummings
Submission
Round 1 • 4:21

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Nathan Coy-25
Zak Cummings+30
1144
(+30)
Zak Cummings

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Nathan Coy: -22Zak Cummings: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricNathan CoyZak Cummings
Total UFC Fights38
Experience Gap-55
Experience ELO9871 136
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

Zak Cummings's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Zak Cummings for the expected result. Had Nathan Coy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Nathan Coy: -18Zak Cummings: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricNathan CoyZak Cummings
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9821 076
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Nathan Coy: -20Zak Cummings: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricNathan CoyZak Cummings
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:214:21
Win Type ELO9841 236
ELO Change-20+33
💡

What Happened

Zak Cummings earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:21, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Nathan Coy: -13Zak Cummings: +13

Performance Statistics

MetricNathan CoyZak Cummings
Significant Strikes Landed2325
Significant Strikes Attempted4172
Total Strikes Landed2325
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0051 194
ELO Change-13+13
💡

What Happened

Zak Cummings slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 34.7% vs 56.1% accuracy. Zak Cummings capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Nathan Coy: -81Zak Cummings: +81

Performance Statistics

MetricNathan CoyZak Cummings
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted10
Ground Control Time0:050:11
Ground Strikes Landed02
Ground ELO9661 209
ELO Change-81+81
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Nathan Coy: -18Zak Cummings: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricNathan CoyZak Cummings
Days Since Last Fight419147
Activity ELO1 0251 134
ELO Change-18+35
💡

What Happened

Zak Cummings demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Zak Cummings capitalized on this activity level, while Nathan Coy's 419-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Nathan Coy: -17Zak Cummings: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricNathan CoyZak Cummings
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO9851 090
ELO Change-17+20
💡

What Happened

Zak Cummings extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nathan Coy is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Nathan Coy: -18Zak Cummings: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricNathan CoyZak Cummings
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9821 076
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.