September 8, 2017
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Neil Magny | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 198 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Rafael Dos Anjos's 6-fight experience advantage (23 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Dos Anjos for the expected result. Had Neil Magny pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 131 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:43 | 3:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 366 | 1 558 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +47 |
Rafael Dos Anjos earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:43, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 226 | 1 459 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Rafael Dos Anjos edged the striking exchanges with 13 vs 1 significant strikes, 81.3% vs 20.0% accuracy. Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 3:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 295 | 1 545 |
| ELO Change | -107 | +107 |
Rafael Dos Anjos dominated Neil Magny on the ground with 3:20 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 253 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 1 420 | 1 505 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +63 |
Rafael Dos Anjos demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this activity level, while Neil Magny's 253-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 207 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Rafael Dos Anjos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Neil Magny is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 124 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.