November 5, 2013
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Neil Magny | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 958 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Seth Baczynski's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Seth Baczynski for the expected result. Had Neil Magny pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 969 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Seth Baczynski earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 104 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 987 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Neil Magny controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (104 vs 46 total strikes). However, since Neil Magny lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Seth Baczynski's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:21 | 8:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 905 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Seth Baczynski controlled Neil Magny on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 8:25 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 96 | 124 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +31 |
Seth Baczynski demonstrated solid activity levels with 124 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Seth Baczynski capitalized on this activity level, while Neil Magny's 96-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +20 |
Seth Baczynski started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Neil Magny is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Neil Magny | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.