October 24, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Neil Magny | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 108 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Neil Magny's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Neil Magny for the expected result. Had William Macario pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Neil Magny | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 080 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Neil Magny | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:40 | 2:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 217 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -23 |
Neil Magny gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Neil Magny | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 65 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 146 | 77 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 114 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 266 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Neil Magny dominated the striking exchanges with 114 vs 25 total strikes, 65 vs 24 significant strikes, 44.5% vs 31.2% accuracy. Neil Magny capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Neil Magny | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:50 | 0:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 33 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 167 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Neil Magny controlled William Macario on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:50 of control time, 33 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Neil Magny | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 278 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -8 |
Neil Magny demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Neil Magny capitalized on this activity level, while William Macario's 301-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Neil Magny | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 115 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -16 |
Neil Magny continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. William Macario's now at 0.
| Metric | Neil Magny | William Macario |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 080 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

