October 17, 2008
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Neil Wain | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Neil Wain | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Neil Wain | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:31 | 1:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 973 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +64 |
Shane Carwin earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:31, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Neil Wain | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 939 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Shane Carwin edged the striking exchanges with 13 vs 4 significant strikes. Shane Carwin capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Neil Wain | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 950 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Shane Carwin controlled Neil Wain on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:02 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Neil Wain | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +39 |
Shane Carwin demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Shane Carwin capitalized on this activity level, while Neil Wain's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Neil Wain | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Shane Carwin extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Neil Wain is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Neil Wain | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.