November 20, 2003
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nick Agallar | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 972 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Yves Edwards's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Yves Edwards for the expected result. Had Nick Agallar pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nick Agallar | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nick Agallar | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:14 | 2:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +52 |
Yves Edwards gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Nick Agallar | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 57 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 930 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Yves Edwards controlled the striking exchanges with 39 vs 10 total strikes, 33 vs 5 significant strikes, 57.9% vs 11.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Yves Edwards capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nick Agallar | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:07 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 955 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Yves Edwards landed 1 knockdown followed by 11 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Nick Agallar | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +23 |
Yves Edwards demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Yves Edwards capitalized on this activity level, while Nick Agallar's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nick Agallar | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +26 |
Yves Edwards extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nick Agallar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nick Agallar | Yves Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

