December 14, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nick Catone | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 974 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +29 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Nick Catone | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nick Catone | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:04 | 1:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 013 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +47 |
TJ Waldburger earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:04, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Nick Catone was submitted.
| Metric | Nick Catone | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 983 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
TJ Waldburger controlled the striking exchanges with 76.5% vs 62.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. TJ Waldburger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nick Catone | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:19 | 1:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 073 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
TJ Waldburger controlled Nick Catone on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:19 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Nick Catone | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 177 | 177 |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
TJ Waldburger demonstrated solid activity levels with 177 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, TJ Waldburger capitalized on this activity level, while Nick Catone's 177-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nick Catone | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
TJ Waldburger started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nick Catone is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nick Catone | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.