January 31, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nick Catone | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 007 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Nick Catone's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nick Catone for the expected result. Had Tom Watson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Nick Catone | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nick Catone | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 026 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Nick Catone receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Nick Catone | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 149 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 009 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Tom Watson controlled the striking through superior volume (54 vs 34 total strikes), significant strike advantage (50 vs 31). However, since Tom Watson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Nick Catone's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Nick Catone | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:11 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 122 | 886 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Nick Catone controlled Tom Watson on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 4:11 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Nick Catone | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 413 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 022 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -22 |
Nick Catone demonstrated extended layoff with 413 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Nick Catone capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Watson's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nick Catone | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 013 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Nick Catone started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Watson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nick Catone | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.