April 1, 2004
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 065 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -35 |
Nick Diaz overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Robbie Lawler.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:31 | 1:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 165 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +102 | -50 |
Nick Diaz gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 64 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 159 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +126 | -126 |
Nick Diaz controlled the striking exchanges with 22 vs 16 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nick Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:49 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 170 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Nick Diaz did not secure a significant ground advantage against Robbie Lawler on the ground with 0:49 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 055 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -27 |
Nick Diaz demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nick Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Robbie Lawler's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -23 |
Nick Diaz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Robbie Lawler is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Nick Diaz | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.